As I write this my portfolios on the computer screen are a sea of red and today even stronger countries like Singapore and Austria are taking a nice haircut. Last week was not pleasant. For example, the India SENSEX index was off 12.96% and many other emerging markets went south. While we had already trimmed some holdings and raised some cash over the past few months, we still had significant exposure to these markets. But helping us to limit our exposure and lock in gains is our firm policy of putting in place a 15% stop loss provision - in other words, a position is automatically sold when it declines 15% from its high. This policy takes the emotions out of it and forces us to take a fresh look at a region or country before making a decision. In the last week, the stop loss has been triggered for India (MINDX) & (IIF) Brazil (EWZ), the Latin America 40 iShare (ILF) and South Africa (EZA). I am now looking at all of these with a fresh perspective and will make decisions looking ahead and as a fresh investment. Importantly, our stop loss policy enabled us to preserve some nice gains. The Matthews India Fund (MINDX) went out at $13.50 with a cost of $10.50. The Morgan Stanley India Fund (IIF) went out at $47 with a cost of just under $31. South Africa (EZA) went out at $105.5 with a cost of $79, and the Latin America S&P 40 iShare (ILF) was removed at $139 versus a cost of $80.7. Of my eight rules for ETF success, none is more important than the stop loss strategy especially for emerging markets. A close second is the need to separate your core portfolio from your capital growth portfolios. Our core conservative portfolio has only one country specific ETF in it Switzerland. After the dust settles a bit, I will likely move back into some of these countries as investors overreact leading to great buying opportunities. India still seems overvalued despite its significant hit. Multiples for the SENSEX index are still in the high teens. Meanwhile, Thailands SET index is now trading at just a seven times earnings |
